Does the purchase of plant-based analogs in retail settings cause displacements of the corresponding animal products?
Context and Relevance:
Consumer panel data are invaluable for understanding purchasing behaviors over time. Recent studies have shown that plant-based analogues can impact the sales of animal products, demonstrating their potential for shifting consumer habits towards more sustainable options. However, the current body of research is limited in scope, focusing on a narrow range of products and methodologies. This project seeks to broaden the investigation by examining a diverse array of plant-based products and employing innovative analytical methods. By doing so, it aims to provide a more comprehensive understanding of how plant-based purchases influence the sales of animal-based products, thus informing strategies for promoting sustainable consumption patterns.
Potential Research Approach:
Causal Inference and Natural Experiments: Develop a target trial framework to identify causal relationships between the introduction of plant-based analogues and the displacement of animal products. Utilize natural experiments such as product launches, regional price variations, or health-related news events as sources of exogenous randomness.
Advanced Modeling Techniques: Apply machine learning methods such as association rule learning to identify patterns in purchasing behavior. Use event study methodologies to analyze the impact of specific events on sales. Implement difference-in-differences approaches to compare changes in purchasing behavior before and after the introduction of plant-based products. Employ synthetic controls and matrix completion methods to strengthen causal inference.
Data Utilization: Use granular purchasing data from sources like Nielsen, Kantar, or 84.51°, focusing on physical volume or weight rather than expenditure. Ensure outcome measures are tied directly to purchasing behavior, such as units bought and corresponding displacement of animal products. Address price differential impacts by examining products approaching price parity.
Product Range: Investigate underexplored plant-based products such as liquid eggs, ready-meals, coffee creamer, mayonnaise, margarine, ice cream, and yogurt. Alternatively, conduct innovative studies on plant-based milks and meats using new methodologies to validate and extend existing findings.
Additional Questions:
What role do marketing and promotions play in the adoption of plant-based analogues, and how effective are they compared to those for animal products?
How do supply chain factors, such as availability and shelf placement, influence consumer choices between plant-based and animal products?
What are the cross-category effects of plant-based analogue purchases? For instance, does purchasing plant-based meat influence the likelihood of buying other plant-based products like dairy alternatives?